According to the UK Shipping Customs website, the U.S. manufacturing sector contracted for the third consecutive month in May 2025. Due to the impact of tariffs,
supplier delivery and input times have reached their longest in nearly three years,raising fears of potential product shortages.
A recent survey by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) revealed that President Trump"s aggressive trade policies have once again become a focal point of concern among manufacturers,
with suppliers passing on import tariffs to customers.
Some transportation equipment manufacturers stated that repeated tariff impositions have seriously affected suppliers" responsiveness and profitability. Computer and electronics manufacturers expressed concerns that tariffs,
coupled with government spending cuts, have significantly disrupted business.
Matthew Martin, a senior economist at Oxford Economics, noted that the outlook for manufacturing is gloomy. With the earlier demand boom having passed, businesses now face rising input costs,
supply disruptions, and cautious attitudes from both domestic and international customers regarding new orders.
ISM reported that last month"s manufacturing PMI fell to a six-month low of 48.5 from April"s 48.7. A PMI below 50 indicates contraction, and manufacturing accounts for 10.2% of the U.S. economy.
However, the PMI remains above 42.3, which ISM says still signals overall economic expansion.
UK economists had forecast the PMI to rise to 49.3. The survey showed that manufacturing sectors heavily reliant on imported raw materials have not benefited from eased U.S.-China tensions. Last week,
Trump announced plans to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50%.
While industries like furniture and electrical equipment reported growth, sectors such as transportation equipment and chemicals saw contraction.
Economists noted that chaotic tariff implementation and legal uncertainty—fueled by a court ruling voiding many of Trump"s tariffs, only for a higher court to temporarily reinstate them—make planning difficult for businesses.
Analysts stated that tariffs are adding pressure to single-family housing construction spending. According to a Commerce Department report, construction spending declined 0.4% in April following a 0.8% drop in March,
with single-family housing down 1.1%.
Transportation equipment manufacturers said that although automakers have raised prices to protect margins, poor collaboration with suppliers is pushing the latter into financial distress.
Electrical equipment and appliance makers noted that government-imposed tariffs alone have caused supply chain disruptions akin to the pandemic.
Chemical manufacturers stated that tariffs are always passed on to customers, with few companies absorbing them. Trump views tariffs as a revenue source and a tool to revive the industrial base,
but economists argue this goal is unrealistic in the short term due to structural issues like labor shortages.
ISM reported that the supplier delivery index rose to 56.1, the highest since 2022, indicating worsening delivery delays and supply chain bottlenecks. Port operators also noted a drop in cargo volume.
The import index fell from 47.1 to 39.9, the lowest since early 2009. The export index also declined, and consumer inventories hit a 15-month low. The input price index dropped slightly to 69.4 but remained elevated.
根據英國航運關網站表示，美國製造業今（二○二五）年五月連續第三個月出現萎縮，在關稅影響下，供應商交付並投入的時間是近三年來最長的，恐代表某些商品即將出現短缺。
美國供應管理協會（ISM）近日發布一份調查顯示，美國總統川普的激進貿易政策再次成為製造商評論焦點，供應商正在將進口關稅轉嫁給客戶。
部分運輸設備製造商認為，反覆徵收的關稅嚴重影響供應商應對能力與盈利能力，而計算機與電子產品製造商則認為，關稅與政府削減開支給企業帶來很大的困擾。
牛津經濟研究院高級經濟學家Matthew Martin表示，製造業前景黯淡，尤其是在前期需求激增時期已經過去情況下，企業正面臨更高投入成本、供應中斷及國內外客戶對新訂單抱持謹慎態度
ISM表示，上個月製造業PMI指數從四月的48.7降至48.5的六個月低點，低於50即代表製造業萎縮；製造業占美國經濟10.2%。不過，PMI仍高於42.3，ISM指出這代表整體經濟仍在擴張。
英國經濟學家原預測PMI升至49.3。依調查結果，嚴重依賴進口原料的製造業未受中美緊張局勢緩和影響。川普上週表示將把鋼鐵與鋁進口關稅提高一倍至50%。
部分產業如家具、電氣設備等報告成長，而運輸設備、化學產品等行業則呈現萎縮。經濟學家指出，關稅的不確定性與實施混亂，使企業難以制定計畫；而貿易法院裁定川普部分關稅無效後，上訴法院又暫時恢復關稅措施，增加不穩定性。
分析師指出，關稅加劇四月獨棟住宅建設支出壓力。根據商務部報告，四月建築支出繼三月下滑0.8%後，又降0.4%，其中新建獨棟住宅支出降1.1%。
運輸設備製造商表示，儘管汽車製造商提高售價以維持利潤，但與供應商合作不足，導致供應商財務壓力加劇。電氣設備與家電製造商則表示，光是政府徵稅，就已造成類似疫情的供應鏈中斷。
化學產品製造商指出，關稅最終都會轉嫁給客戶，企業鮮少自行吸收。川普把關稅視為增加政府收入與振興工業基礎的工具，但經濟學家認為在勞動力短缺等結構問題下，目標短期難以實現。
ISM指出，供應商交貨指數升至56.1，是自2022年來最高，顯示交貨延遲與供應鏈瓶頸擴大。港口營運商也報告貨運量下滑。
進口指數從47.1降至39.9，為2009年以來最低，出口指數亦下滑，消費者庫存降至15個月低點。投入品價格指標降至69.4，仍處高位。
Information source:台灣新生報航運版20250604
